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Let’s explore the common question, “how accurate are weather forecasts?” and see what factors affect their accuracy You can gain accuracy by making broader predictions and gain precision by making narrower weather forecasts Factors that determine the accuracy of a weather forecast include how far out the forecast is, the technology used, and the area’s geography.
Louis uccellini, former director of the national weather service However, predictions for 10 days or longer drop dramatically, being correct only about 50% of the time. This progress is largely thanks to advancements in computing power and data collection.
More than 10 days out is usually based on patterns and the average forecast from previous years
However, i ran an experiment in october to see which forecast had the most accurate temperature 5 days out. This means that while forecasts are much better than they used to be, surprises still happen, keeping us all on our toes. Our amazing analysts at forecastwatch examined 22 different weather forecast providers to provide a holistic analysis of weather forecast performance for global forecasts made one to five days in advance for 2023 by evaluating 13 different metrics. However, forecasts extending beyond 10 days tend to have an accuracy rate of only about 50%.
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